"To the US – Israeli claim that Iran must end its nuclear weapons program, the US intelligence services have repeatedly stated that such a program does not exist".
And Mr Trump told reporters that, "I don't care what she said".
Tulsi Gabbard is not just a woman who has been in combat and who knows a lot. She is the USA's Director of National Intelligence, and all 18 intelligence agencies, including the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the National Security Agency (NSA), report directly to her - as do other federal agencies, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).
So Mr Trump - an uneducated, ignorant, insouciant businessman who probably still has difficulty distinguishing Iran from Iraq - peremptorily dismisses the considered views of the tens of thousands of highly-paid and qualified specialists in the USA's 18 or more intelligence agencies.
In favour of what? If Mr Trump is not interested in the conclusions of all those experts, whose views does he consider? Or simply accept uncritically and without consideration? It can only be Mr Netanyahu and his experts - who, however, are openly committed to goals that clash radically with those of the USA.
Mr Trump's seven words to the reporters (and the world) echo precisely Karl Rove's of 21 years ago:
"The aide said that guys like me were 'in what we call the reality-based community,' which he defined as people who 'believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.' I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. 'That's not the way the world really works anymore,' he continued. 'We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality - judiciously, as you will - we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors... and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.'"
- Ronald Suskind (American journalist) reporting the comments of a White House aide (later identified as Karl Rove) ["Without A Doubt" by Ron Suskind, The New York Times Magazine, 17 October 2004].
Mr Trump, like Karl Rove, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, Mike Pompeo, and all the other neocons, is a dweller in a "new reality" of his own imagining. When I was young, we used to call that "wishful thinking", and we pitied those poor unfortunates who indulged in it.
I remain firmly in the camp of Philip K. Dick, who wrote: "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away". A principle that deserves to be etched in letters of fire in every school, church, government department and business office. But most of all in the Oval Office.
Marya, there is a saying that a ship is safer docked in a harbor, but the purpose of a ship isn't to be docked in a harbor. Your question gets to the purpose of life.
It's up to us to fix this mess. Forget about the odds. Join with friends and act together to assure that the worst doesn't happen.
And panic is underrated. It is a warning that something is wrong. As long as we are alive, there is hope.
There are likely other concerned people near you. In the past, I’ve found others by reaching out. The ANSWER Coalition has a good network. I believe that you can find contact information online.
Religious organizations are diverse, and some—- I belong to one, are passionate about social justice issues. And nuclear war is certainly a social justice issue.
There are two different issues here. One is to stay sane in the face of insane acts. And the other is to do something about it, which you are doing.
But the staying sane while doing this part is important also. Solidarity with my fellow humans takes away the feeling that I am on my own.
While I agree that the conventional 'bunker busters' are likely insufficient to achieve the stated goals, and that tactical nuclear weapons are probably necessary, I do not understand the authors assertion that the use of these weapons would necessarily lead to nuclear escalation with Russia. I would appreciate someone walking me through the logic. Otherwise, well written and insightful piece.
Financial markets are not pricing in your doom and gloom predictions. I'm not referring to just the USA stock market but rather all financial markets worldwide. Israeli market did get slammed, but that's for past and ongoing destruction of Israeli economy, not end of world predictions.
I worked in finance for thirty years. My last job was creating and running a billion dollar global macro fund. The stock market is influenced by financial factors, Fed policy, and systemic leverage. The idea that it is an indicator for the state of the world is mistaken.
Sad as it is, wars are profitable for the generally nefarious institutions like those represented in the S&P 500. Profits, a financial factor, drive stock prices.
Stocks will go down for more than a week or two when money and leverage are drained from the system. This hasn't been done in earnest since 1994.
Last, my analysis doesn't have emotions. I'm laying out the state of play as I see it.
Apply what I wrote for the stock market to these other markets. Why might doing so make sense? Because there are a few financial drivers of speculative financial markets. I gave these, quantity of money, Fed policy, and systemic leverage.
These drive bond prices, stock prices, house prices, art prices, etc.
During the first Gulf War, financial prices fell because the price of oil doubled. That is different from them falling due to negative emotions. Today, the price of oil is barely changed. Mr. Trump is putting a tremendous amount of energy into managing the oil price.
Frank, I wrote a reply yesterday that appears to have simply vanished.
The answer is the same in either case. The same factors drive speculative financial markets, not just the stock market. They are the amount of money floating around, Fed policy, and the amount of systemic leverage.
In the 1990 Gulf War, financial asset prices plunged. They did so because oil prices doubled, not because of doom and gloom.
The Trump administration is currently putting a massive effort into stabilizing oil prices. This is why financial markets have held together thus far.
"To the US – Israeli claim that Iran must end its nuclear weapons program, the US intelligence services have repeatedly stated that such a program does not exist".
And Mr Trump told reporters that, "I don't care what she said".
Tulsi Gabbard is not just a woman who has been in combat and who knows a lot. She is the USA's Director of National Intelligence, and all 18 intelligence agencies, including the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the National Security Agency (NSA), report directly to her - as do other federal agencies, including the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).
So Mr Trump - an uneducated, ignorant, insouciant businessman who probably still has difficulty distinguishing Iran from Iraq - peremptorily dismisses the considered views of the tens of thousands of highly-paid and qualified specialists in the USA's 18 or more intelligence agencies.
In favour of what? If Mr Trump is not interested in the conclusions of all those experts, whose views does he consider? Or simply accept uncritically and without consideration? It can only be Mr Netanyahu and his experts - who, however, are openly committed to goals that clash radically with those of the USA.
Mr Trump's seven words to the reporters (and the world) echo precisely Karl Rove's of 21 years ago:
"The aide said that guys like me were 'in what we call the reality-based community,' which he defined as people who 'believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.' I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. 'That's not the way the world really works anymore,' he continued. 'We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality - judiciously, as you will - we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors... and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.'"
- Ronald Suskind (American journalist) reporting the comments of a White House aide (later identified as Karl Rove) ["Without A Doubt" by Ron Suskind, The New York Times Magazine, 17 October 2004].
Mr Trump, like Karl Rove, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, Mike Pompeo, and all the other neocons, is a dweller in a "new reality" of his own imagining. When I was young, we used to call that "wishful thinking", and we pitied those poor unfortunates who indulged in it.
I remain firmly in the camp of Philip K. Dick, who wrote: "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away". A principle that deserves to be etched in letters of fire in every school, church, government department and business office. But most of all in the Oval Office.
Rob,
How do you psychologically handle the soon annihilation of civilization? I don't know how not to panic.
Marya, there is a saying that a ship is safer docked in a harbor, but the purpose of a ship isn't to be docked in a harbor. Your question gets to the purpose of life.
It's up to us to fix this mess. Forget about the odds. Join with friends and act together to assure that the worst doesn't happen.
And panic is underrated. It is a warning that something is wrong. As long as we are alive, there is hope.
I keep calling my congressional representative and the Whitehouse comment line, and I urge family and friends to do the same. What else can I do?
There are likely other concerned people near you. In the past, I’ve found others by reaching out. The ANSWER Coalition has a good network. I believe that you can find contact information online.
Religious organizations are diverse, and some—- I belong to one, are passionate about social justice issues. And nuclear war is certainly a social justice issue.
There are two different issues here. One is to stay sane in the face of insane acts. And the other is to do something about it, which you are doing.
But the staying sane while doing this part is important also. Solidarity with my fellow humans takes away the feeling that I am on my own.
The stardust bit at the end made my day 😜
Thanks Youlian.
Insanity is deep here in the empire of delusions.
"Why we need to learn this lesson the hard way is a bit of a mystery" .... unless we agree we have to eliminate psychopaths from power.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=politicians+psychopaths&t=ffab&ia=web
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/psychopath-mps-would-probably-kill-25855281
https://thepowermoves.com/snakes-in-suits/
https://www.learning-mind.com/hare-psychopathy-checklist/
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/02 /psychopathic_behavior_and_leaders.html
https://bobmschwartz.com/2018/06/20/dsm-5-antisocial-personality-disorder-sociopathy/
https://newatlas.com/psychopath-brain-mri-study/50365/
https://modlab.yale.edu/news/could-brain-scan-diagnose-you-psychopath-guardian
http://web.archive.org/web/20200727163211/https://sites.google.com/site/flagenglish/why-we-should- psych-test-political-candidates—psychopath-test-all-policymakers
https://nopsychos.wordpress.com/
https://veilofreality.com/2014/02/07/marianne-williamson-and-the-elephant-in-the-living-room/
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0401/S00031.htm
While I agree that the conventional 'bunker busters' are likely insufficient to achieve the stated goals, and that tactical nuclear weapons are probably necessary, I do not understand the authors assertion that the use of these weapons would necessarily lead to nuclear escalation with Russia. I would appreciate someone walking me through the logic. Otherwise, well written and insightful piece.
The assertion was that it could lead to escalation with Russia, not that it would.
Russia hasn’t yet formally retaliated for the Western attacks on Russian nuclear assets.
According to Donald Trump, V. Putin said that Russia would retaliate.
The question then is: with conventional or nuclear weapons?
The US using nuclear weapons in Iran, which is an ally of Russia, might tilt Russia toward retaliating with nuclear weapons.
But this is speculation from a Western perspective. There is no insight here into Russian deliberations.
Financial markets are not pricing in your doom and gloom predictions. I'm not referring to just the USA stock market but rather all financial markets worldwide. Israeli market did get slammed, but that's for past and ongoing destruction of Israeli economy, not end of world predictions.
I worked in finance for thirty years. My last job was creating and running a billion dollar global macro fund. The stock market is influenced by financial factors, Fed policy, and systemic leverage. The idea that it is an indicator for the state of the world is mistaken.
Sad as it is, wars are profitable for the generally nefarious institutions like those represented in the S&P 500. Profits, a financial factor, drive stock prices.
Stocks will go down for more than a week or two when money and leverage are drained from the system. This hasn't been done in earnest since 1994.
Last, my analysis doesn't have emotions. I'm laying out the state of play as I see it.
Thank you for the comment.
You can't say I didn't try. Three sentences and the second and third were only added later because i guessed you might misread the first...
There are many financial markets, not just the stock market.
There are many financial markets, not just the stock market.
There are many financial markets, not just the stock market.
There are many financial markets, not just the stock market.
Apply what I wrote for the stock market to these other markets. Why might doing so make sense? Because there are a few financial drivers of speculative financial markets. I gave these, quantity of money, Fed policy, and systemic leverage.
These drive bond prices, stock prices, house prices, art prices, etc.
During the first Gulf War, financial prices fell because the price of oil doubled. That is different from them falling due to negative emotions. Today, the price of oil is barely changed. Mr. Trump is putting a tremendous amount of energy into managing the oil price.
Frank, I wrote a reply yesterday that appears to have simply vanished.
The answer is the same in either case. The same factors drive speculative financial markets, not just the stock market. They are the amount of money floating around, Fed policy, and the amount of systemic leverage.
In the 1990 Gulf War, financial asset prices plunged. They did so because oil prices doubled, not because of doom and gloom.
The Trump administration is currently putting a massive effort into stabilizing oil prices. This is why financial markets have held together thus far.