On Tuesday, peace negotiators for Ukraine and Russia met in Turkey and agreed in general terms to security guarantees for Russia that include Ukraine formally becoming non-aligned (with NATO), foregoing NATO membership, and foregoing the placement of nuclear missiles in Ukraine.
These are approximately the terms demanded by Russia before its military incursion into Ukraine began.
In return, Ukraine is seeking security guarantees outside of NATO that will serve as a deterrent to military aggression from other nations, including Russia.
No specifics were reported regarding what this new alignment for Ukraine outside of NATO might look like.
‘Denazification,’ which could have resulted in the summary execution of tens of thousands of Ukrainian military personnel by the Russian military, has been removed as a threat by the Russians.
This will leave the largest neo-Nazi movement in or near Europe, complete with neo-Nazi militias that have been heavily armed by the U.S., intact.
As an apparent act of good faith, Russia is pulling forces away from Kiev. Tactical maneuvering could also explain the move.
If the negotiations are allowed to move forward, this would represent the best possible outcome for both Russia and Ukraine. As of now, no final agreement has been inked. This leaves the terms open to be changed.
The greatest hindrance to successful negotiations is likely the Americans. Recall, the Russians asked for these same security guarantees before their military build-up on Ukraine’s border, and again before their military incursion into Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appears to be active in the negotiations. Given that the Americans previously refused to allow security guarantees to be given, Zelensky is apparently now negotiating in Ukraine’s interests, not Washington’s.
But it is a mistake to assume that the forces that were controlling Zelensky won’t be re-asserted.
This is the nightmare scenario for the Americans, a successful peace deal that ‘rewards Russian aggression,’ negotiated by the Ukrainians without the U.S. dictating Ukraine’s terms.
But is also begs the question of whether or not Zelensky actually has the power to finalize a deal with Russia. In 2014, the Americans were able to install a new government in Ukraine chosen by them (the Americans), but enacted through the Ukrainian Parliament.
This demonstrated American control of the Ukrainian political system that isn’t visible from the outside. American political levers inside Ukraine no doubt still exist.
The Americans are downplaying progress, claiming knowledge of Russian military strategy in Ukraine that they do not possess.
If there is a negotiated settlement, and Ukraine’s concessions certainly make it appear that one is possible, the current conflict will move to a new stage, not disappear.